Over the last month we have seen a continuation of the market volatility that has dominated much of 2022.
During these times, some investors can be spooked and question their long-term investment strategies. Some, may find the worry too much and feel the best thing to do is pull out of the market entirely and wait on the sidelines until they feel safe to move back in. Often this emotive decision, ends up being the wrong move long-term. With any market fall, it’s human nature that the experience of a loss is more acutely felt than the joy of a gain (‘loss aversion’). A degree of volatility in the market will always be a constant; therefore, it is important for investors to keep perspective and be disciplined in their investment approaches. Below is an outline of the long-term fundamentals to bear in mind.
1) No-one can time the market
For most investors, equities should be included as part of their overall portfolio. However, ‘timing the market’ – that is, consistently selling high and buying low, is almost impossible. For that reason, we believe in the old mantra ‘time in the market, not timing the market’. In the last 20 years to 2017, missing out on the markets 10 best trading days each year resulted in over 4% pa of under-performance. The best trading days tend to cluster with the worst days, and it’s usually at a time when volatility is above average. While volatility can test investor’s resilience, active fund managers remove the emotion and view volatility as an investment opportunity. Stretched valuations in some stocks, and indiscriminate passive selling, create opportunities for active managers to add value through strict and skilful risk control.
2) Avoid emotion-driven selling
If the market has been performing well for a period of time, a pullback can often trigger an investor to take profits, while a more prolonged correction can lead to emotion-driven selling (or jumping between investments). However, emotion-driven selling commonly will result in a lower long-term return on your portfolio, because you are then faced with trying to re-enter a rising market. Before making a decision to sell an investment three factors to consider are:
- What is your investment time horizon? If you are more than a few years away from retirement, or generating a long-term income, a market correction will likely seem like a blip in your investment history in the coming years.
- Are you remaining true to the long-term objectives when you established your investment?
- Fund managers are more adept at counter-emotional investing, as well as understanding the market fundamentals (however, even the best fund managers have periods of short-term under-performance).
Trying to predict which asset class – be it shares, cash, fixed interest or property, will outperform others in any one year can be as difficult as trying to time the market. In the last 15 years, each of these asset classes have had their periods of relative out-performance, but those that post the long-term gains in good years, such as Australian property, can also be hardest hit when the market turns. If you are sufficiently diversified across the asset classes, your broader investment is hedged against periods of high volatility and portfolio risk is smoothed out.